Wednesday, August 18, 1999
1. Re-take picture
2. Summarize yesterday's activity
a) Took one sample; considered what it suggested about the population of items in the bag.
b) Repeated the sampling process 10 times (or so). Kept track of the number of (e.g.) reds in each sample.
c) Made a table of the results
3. Today we will
a) discuss yesterday's activity and big ideas contained in it (e.g., variability from sample to sample)
b) repeat the activity
c) investigate the ideas of randomness and predictability.
4. Record their results from yesterday.
5. Interpret them in regard to what they suggest about the bag's contents.
6. Discuss what they expect would happen if they do it again.
7. Do it again. (Hope that Ayako's group get's a different result!)
8. Raise the question of why their first result might have been so skewed.
a) Did they use a biased selection process?
b) Is it fairly common to get that type of result?
c) Question: By what method can we answer that question?
9. When we run the simulation (select 10 from a large number of evenly split items)
a) Keep track of the times a result is "like" the one in question.
b) Examine the fraction of the time that we get a result "like" the one in question.