February 15, 2000

Notes for February 15, 2000



  1. Collect solutions to Page 5 problems.
    1. Emphasize that we will use these for comparison purposes later in the unit (i.e., THEY will compare their earlier thinking with their current thinking).
  • Discuss homework
    1. Reminder of homework policy
    2. Questions
  • Discuss "Probabilistic situations"
    1. It is not the situation per se that is or is not probabilistic. It is the way you imagine it being that is or is not probabilistic.
  • Examples. (PowerPoint) Are the situations entailed in these statements probabilistic? If not, rephrase the statement so that it entails a probabilistic situation. (Be open to the possibility that a statement cannot be so rephrased.
    1. The probability that the next U.S. Attorney General is a woman
    2. The probability that you will be able to read newspapers more intelligently after this course
    3. The probability that a it will snow tomorrow
    4. The probability that (etc.)
  • Determining probabilities
    1. Emprically
    2. Theoretically
  • Toss three coins. What is prob of 2 heads?
    1. Step 1 – rephrase the situation
    2. Step 2 – determine empirically or theoretically
      1. When determining theoretically, want to determine in a way that we are assured it will match empirical results.
  • Terms
    1. Experiment
    2. Outcome
    3. Sample space
    4. Event
  • Homework