Segment

Time

1. Questions from journals
1. What does it mean that "the probability of a specific outcome on a specific event" is 0 or 1?
2. What is the difference between theoretical probability and empirical probability?
3. Conduct of class – how to participate?

1. What does "long term behavior" mean when we repeat a process over and over?
2. Look at 12-2 ActivStats demo. Notice:
1. That the horizontal scale is logarithmic (explain)
2. That individual samples vary from one to the next as much early as late, BUT
3. Cumulative results begin to vary less and less
4. Show same idea using Data Desk activity in ActivStats 12-2.
3. 12.8, p. 150. Simulation
1. Using Data Desk 12-2 activity
2. Using Data Desk "Generate random sample"

1. Big idea is that two processes are interchangeable if they have the same expected long-run behavior. That is, we can use one process to simulate the long-run behavior of another process if we have no reason to believe that the two processes will yield dissimilar results. (relate this idea to yesterday's discussion of a-j, page 15.

1. Examine the variability in numbers of heads
2. Examine numbers of times got 2 heads (use Pattern)

1. Section 3.2, p. 25 ff. PLAN to use ProbSim on Exercises 3.2.1, 3.2.2. (That is, tomorrow you will arrive and sit down at a computer to implement your plan.)