My conversation with (Student X),10:00 p.m. March 13, 2000

I asked (Student X) if she recalled her reaction to my writing the first stage of the process which was "warden picks". She said she recalled her reaction and that she thought that putting that step in was unnecessary. She said, "all we are concerned about is whether Michael or another prisoner is released".

I asked (Student X) to describe the process that would be repeated over and over as specifically as she could. She said, "whether Michael gets out after one prisoner is eliminated". I then asked when the warden picks a prisoner? (Student X) said, " the prisoner is already picked way before Michael asked."

I described the process of how the warden picks a prisoner and the timing of it (he picked before Michael ever approached him). I then asked, " is this part of the process?"

(Student X) said "the specific process being repeated is to determine whether or not Michael is being released."

What determines that?

He starts out one in three, but when the warden gives a name then he is one out of two.

I shared this scenario with (Student X): Pick a coin from a dime, a nickel, and a penny, put it under a cup, what is the probability of a penny?" 1/3.

Repeat this process, but now I show you a coin in my hand that is not a penny (after having put a coin under the cup). What's the probability the penny is under the cup? (Student X): one half.

Are you thinking that the choice will be made from the two remaining coins? Yes.

And when is that coin that we pick going to go under the cup?

(pause. ) 0h! It's already under the cup. So it won't change anything!