Segment

Time

 Collect journals


Finish #1
 Hand out "solve for accuracy rate" derivation.
 Ask, "Is this a definite result, like the
board can now rest assured that at any time over the next n years,
that it will have wrongly punished exactly 1% of the accused when it
bases its decisions on this new test? [That is, where is the probabilistic
situation?]
 Tell them to study this handout and ask questions
tomorrow. (I’m assuming they studied yesterday’s handout.)
 Quiz (big quiz) on Friday.


Recap of #2
 Simulate the scenario (again):
 Put students in pairs. One is Michael, the other
is Warden.
 Give each pair of students 3 pieces of paper,
labeled "Michael", "John", and "Quincy".
Have them simulate the scenario – assuming Warden picks prisoner
BEFORE Michael asks.
 What is the probabilistic situation? What is the
process that is being repeated?a
 Change the assumptions:
 Have them simulate the scenario – assuming
Warden picks prisoner AFTER Michael asks.
 Analyze it using tree diagrams (emphasize importance
of BEING CLEAR ON THE PROCESS AND REFLECTING IT IN YOUR DIAGRAM)


Pick students for next presentation.

