BHS Statistics
August 20, 1999
The idea of "unusual" that we will investigate is this: An event is "unusual", or "unlikely", or "rare" if over the long run we expect to see it a small fraction of the time. This way of thinking about unusualness does not say anything about the event per se. Rather, it emphasizes our expectation that, for whatever reason and relative to certain circumstances, we expect to see it relatively infrequently.
In that light, look at these situations and plan an investigation of the events' "unusualness". Begin your investigations by first saying what you must reasonably assume about the situation to allow you to investigate it. Then, describe the overall strategy you will use and how you will use ProbSim to carry it out.
Assumptions for your investigation:
Strategy/method of investigation:
Result:
Conclusion:
No. reds |
|
|
|
|
|
|
No. Samples |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Question: Does this set of results suggest that, unbeknownst to them, their process of selecting samples introduced a bias toward picking fewer reds than whites?
Assumptions for your investigation:
Strategy/method of Investigation:
Result:
Conclusion:
Assumptions for your investigation:
Strategy/method of Investigation:
Result:
Conclusion: