February 17, 2000

Notes for February 17, 2000

 Segment Time Questions from journals What does it mean that "the probability of a specific outcome on a specific event" is 0 or 1? What is the difference between theoretical probability and empirical probability? Conduct of class – how to participate? Homework What does "long term behavior" mean when we repeat a process over and over? Look at 12-2 ActivStats demo. Notice: That the horizontal scale is logarithmic (explain) That individual samples vary from one to the next as much early as late, BUT Cumulative results begin to vary less and less Show same idea using Data Desk activity in ActivStats 12-2. 12.8, p. 150. Simulation Using Data Desk 12-2 activity Using Data Desk "Generate random sample" Simulations: Big idea is that two processes are interchangeable if they have the same expected long-run behavior. That is, we can use one process to simulate the long-run behavior of another process if we have no reason to believe that the two processes will yield dissimilar results. (relate this idea to yesterday's discussion of a-j, page 15. Have them use Prob Sim to simulate tossing 3 coins 15 times. Examine the variability in numbers of heads Examine numbers of times got 2 heads (use Pattern) Situation: 300 people in an auditorium, 220 of whom are Vanderbilt fans (where is this auditorium?). Suppose we pick 10 people at random. What is the probability that the first 5 are Vanderbilt fans ? (What does this mean?) Homework Section 3.2, p. 25 ff. PLAN to use ProbSim on Exercises 3.2.1, 3.2.2. (That is, tomorrow you will arrive and sit down at a computer to implement your plan.)