Segment
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Time
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- Questions from journals
- What does it mean that "the probability of a
specific outcome on a specific event" is 0 or 1?
- What is the difference between theoretical probability
and empirical probability?
- Conduct of class how to participate?
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Homework
- What does "long term behavior" mean when we repeat
a process over and over?
- Look at 12-2 ActivStats demo. Notice:
- That the horizontal scale is logarithmic (explain)
- That individual samples vary from one to the
next as much early as late, BUT
- Cumulative results begin to vary less and less
- Show same idea using Data Desk activity in ActivStats
12-2.
- 12.8, p. 150. Simulation
- Using Data Desk 12-2 activity
- Using Data Desk "Generate random sample"
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Simulations:
- Big idea is that two processes are interchangeable
if they have the same expected long-run behavior. That is, we can use
one process to simulate the long-run behavior of another process if
we have no reason to believe that the two processes will yield dissimilar
results. (relate this idea to yesterday's discussion of a-j,
page 15.
Have them use Prob Sim to simulate tossing 3 coins
15 times.
- Examine the variability in numbers of heads
- Examine numbers of times got 2 heads (use Pattern)
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Situation: 300 people in an auditorium, 220 of whom
are Vanderbilt fans (where is this auditorium?). Suppose we pick 10 people
at random. What is the probability that the first 5 are Vanderbilt fans
? (What does this mean?)
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Homework
- Section 3.2, p. 25 ff. PLAN to use ProbSim on Exercises
3.2.1, 3.2.2. (That is, tomorrow you will arrive and sit down at a computer
to implement your plan.)
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