Segment

Time

 Questions from journals
 What does it mean that "the probability of a
specific outcome on a specific event" is 0 or 1?
 What is the difference between theoretical probability
and empirical probability?
 Conduct of class – how to participate?


Homework
 What does "long term behavior" mean when we repeat
a process over and over?
 Look at 122 ActivStats demo. Notice:
 That the horizontal scale is logarithmic (explain)
 That individual samples vary from one to the
next as much early as late, BUT
 Cumulative results begin to vary less and less
 Show same idea using Data Desk activity in ActivStats
122.
 12.8, p. 150. Simulation
 Using Data Desk 122 activity
 Using Data Desk "Generate random sample"


Simulations:
 Big idea is that two processes are interchangeable
if they have the same expected longrun behavior. That is, we can use
one process to simulate the longrun behavior of another process if
we have no reason to believe that the two processes will yield dissimilar
results. (relate this idea to yesterday's discussion of aj,
page 15.
Have them use Prob Sim to simulate tossing 3 coins
15 times.
 Examine the variability in numbers of heads
 Examine numbers of times got 2 heads (use Pattern)


Situation: 300 people in an auditorium, 220 of whom
are Vanderbilt fans (where is this auditorium?). Suppose we pick 10 people
at random. What is the probability that the first 5 are Vanderbilt fans
? (What does this mean?)


Homework
 Section 3.2, p. 25 ff. PLAN to use ProbSim on Exercises
3.2.1, 3.2.2. (That is, tomorrow you will arrive and sit down at a computer
to implement your plan.)

